Saturday, January 10, 2009

The Tax Cut Scam Cometh (Again)

Obama wants a large stimulus package to avoid having the recession morph into a full-blown depression. He also wants broad bipartisan support for whatever economic plan comes out of Congress. Republicans in Congress, to the surprise of no one who's followed their legislative and ideological history, are steadfast on only one item--more tax cuts. Gee, I wonder which quartile of the population they see as their constituency?

The Economic Policy Institute put out a chart on October 22, courtesy of Moody's, illustrating the relative effectiveness of various approaches to the problem. See for yourself how tax cuts measure versus food stamps, extensions to unemployment insurance and public works projects (to name a few) in terms of effectiveness.

Here's a rather stringent commentary by Brad DeLong about GOP objections to the proposed stimulus package.

Mark Thoma takes a more nuanced approach to the issue of tax cuts, but he too is highly skeptical of the claims and motives of Republicans:.

Clearly, tax cuts can't be the most important component in a package designed to get the economy moving again. As DeLong notes in another post, they may, however, serve a useful political purpose for Obama.

And what would be the estimated effect of the proposed Obama plan on unemployment over the next two years? Tyler Cowan offers a graph showing that without the stimulus plan, unemployment reaches its peak & starts to decline a year later than it will if the stimulus plan goes into effect.

In case you're wondering, a 1% increase in unemployment--at current employment levels--adds up to approximately 1.5 million additional people out of work. (Since the current level isn't constant, 1.5 million is a very rough guess by a non-statistician. The point I'm trying to make, though, is not the specific number, but rather that differences in percentages can mean a lot of human beings.)

Keep this in mind as the debate unfolds over the economic plan in Congress. And now that you've been enlightened (!?!?), please contact your Congresscritters or, if you don't happen to live in a place where said creatures need to be pressured to do the right thing, pass the links above to friends/family/colleagues/etc. living in (ahem) less fortunate places and convince them to contact their alleged representatives in both houses of Congress and urge them to support a stimulus plan that does not rely on tax cuts as a central means of dealing with the economic crisis.

Friday, December 26, 2008

A (Very) Belated Note to My Readers

As you've undoubtedly noticed, I haven't been posting much since the election. There was no point at which I made a conscious decision to cut back on my posting; rather, a combination of things (exhaustion at the end of a year of furious election-related activities, issues related to work and family, an utter lack of interest in the non-stop stream of "news" stories consisting of little more than idle speculation about the choices and implications of Obama administration nominees) combined to divert my attention elsewhere.

I'd like to make a brief statement about the last item in my parenthesized list above. I realize that there are business reasons for the continual production of stories purporting to read the tea leaves about what the future will presumably hold in the upcoming administration. Newspapers/magazines/TV news shows/blogs all want to hold the attention of their audiences. This is especially true of those media outlets dependent on advertising for their income. Eyeballs translate to advertising dollars, etc. That's simply how the game works & I accept that.

On the other hand, I don't pretend for a second to have the ability to read minds or see into the future. Nor do I believe that any of the prognosticators claiming predictive powers have those abilities, either. Predictions about future political events, it seems to me, imply a relatively simple teleology in which objectively observable criteria translate in a relatively straightforward way into concrete political results. I think that implication is grossly misleading because it completely overlooks such imponderables as unforeseen events and, at least as important, the interpersonal dynamics involved, both within a given administration and between that administration and its political constituencies and opponents, domestic as well as foreign.

By way of a quick illustration of what I mean, consider for a moment a few historical examples. Imagine for a moment the possible alternative paths that our political history might have taken had (a) Richard Nixon won the 1960 election rather than JFK; (b) the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King not been assassinated in 1968; (c) the GOP had not decided to cater to the far right with their tacit acceptance of Sen. Joseph McCarthy's witch hunt tactics in the 1950s, Nixon's southern strategy, and their appeals to the religious right from Reagan to the current infestation of the White House. Imagine, for that matter, the kinds of presidential candidates political parties would and would not have been willing to nominate were American culture not afflicted with a widespread attitude according to which hostility to elitism translates to a hostility toward education. Imagine further that the social arrangements into which we've all been socialized since birth were considered to be not merely an accepted natural order of things, but the cumulative results of a series of choices made by humans in response to changing events and contexts.

The point I'm trying to make is that history, culture and politics are the combination of social context, individual personalities and chance. I don't know how those things will shape our world. I feel confident in Obama's ability to make reasoned, principled, humane decisions in the interest of our country and this planet. I have no idea how things will happen. So I wait.

In the interim, as I find things of interest to mull over, I'll share them with you. You have been warned... ;-)

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Another Reason I Support Obama

Today's New York Times profile of Cassandra Q. Butts, Barack Obama's nominee for the positions of White House counsel’s office, White House adviser, and assistant to the president for personnel includes this crucial detail:
Is linked to Mr. Obama by: ...She still has his constitutional law book, which she seized as hostage back in college when she lent him a Miles Davis/John Coltrane album [emphasis mine] that he has yet to return.

While I am certainly not an advocate of borrowing things and then not returning them, I'm greatly encouraged by the item involved.

Oh, by the way--Merry Christmas/Happy Hanukkah/Happy Kwanzaa to all. And a Happy New Year, while I'm at it.

Saturday, December 6, 2008

Look—A Bird!

Now that the economy is tanking, free market absolutists and various GOP apologists are, predictably enough, twisting themselves into pretzels attempting to dodge responsibility for this latest and perhaps most spectacular of a seemingly endless series of Bush administration disasters. It’s all the fault of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they claimed. No, it’s those nasty unions. When in doubt, blame Bill Clinton and racial minorities.

Before anyone forgets, here’s a Washington Post article outlining specific things the Bush administration did and did not do to help our economy crumble into the worst recession in years.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

In Case You Thought It Would Be Easy...

In case anyone was expecting the Obama healthcare plan to sail through Congress without a hitch, here's a foreshadowing of the coming opposition.

It is certainly true that the opinion of a writer at the Cato Institute is not necessarily indicative of the points of view of all who come to oppose the Obama healthcare plan; however, history has already given us multiple examples of precisely this sort of nihilistic cynicism on the part of many in the GOP. (The Democrats have not historically been immune to obstructionism either, but they've never taken it to levels anywhere near those of the GOP. And where cynicism is concerned, the GOP wins the race, hands down.)

So I propose a fairly unproblematic test: when the opposition arises, scrutinize the rationale given by each opponent of the legislation. If it's logical and fact-based, fine. People are, of course, free in a representative democracy such as ours to disagree, debate and perhaps change the legislation in question. But if the logic and evidence don't add up, remember the comments above. After all, such behavior would certainly be consistent not only with the Cato prescription, but with that of the Republican members of the current Congress, who (to give just one example) after threatening to eliminate the filibuster altogether in a flap over Bush judicial appointees, used the filibuster more in the past 2 years than any other Congress in history. On principle, of course.

The Obama website had better gear up for this--it's going to be an epic struggle, & the new administration is going to need all the help it can get.

Saturday, November 8, 2008

I Have to Testify

Pardon me while I unburdon myself...

I got politically involved at the age of 8 (by making an unavoidable pest of myself until my parents--themselves very politically active--relented & allowed me to accompany them to a meeting about the Vietnam war). That was in 1963. My folks belonged to the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, so we got their newsletter, The Southern Patriot. I devoured it every time it came to the house, absorbing stories about racial discrimination, brutality, you name it--and the efforts to combat all that. I quickly became a very precocious political activist-grade schooler, haranguing my classmates about civil rights & the war continually. I took part in probably every major antiwar march in NY & Washington DC from 1968-1974 (except the one whose stated intent was to shut down Washington--I knew that wouldn't work & would just end in bloodshed).

Then came high school. Suddenly I was lost in a sea of rednecks. I got caught in the middle of a race riot my first week in high school. There was another a week later, and classrooms emptied so kids could watch. At that moment, I lost all respect for almost everyone in the school. In gym class, people would throw baseballs and basketballs at me. They’d punch me in the back while I was standing on line waiting to get out of gym class. They'd attack me as I walked in the hallways. I was threatened in study hall. (All of this was because I had shoulder-length hair.) Despite all that, in the midst of the worst of the racial tensions, a bunch of us kids, black & white, started talking to each other about what was going on, at first tentatively, then with intense passion. As we talked, a crowd grew around us which quickly became too big to fit in the space we occupied. We moved to the music room, but that quickly filled up as well, so we decided to go to the principal's office and ask for the auditorium. The administration hesitated so we told them they had to give it to us or we'd take it. They responded by opening up the gym to us. So we held an emergency assembly in the gym with the bleachers set up on both sides of the room and a microphone in the middle of the floor. One by one, kids got up & said they felt there was about to be violence & they didn't want it. We basically talked our way through the issue ourselves (the administration had no clue). By the end of the meeting, the tension had been replaced by a new openness and kids started interacting with each other. Participatory democracy is powerful.

I was disillusioned when Nixon was replaced by Ford, then reluctantly voted for Carter (reluctant because my first presidential vote was cast for someone whose campaign platform was the fact that he walked around in a peanut field wearing overalls & swearing he'd never lie to me). Despite that, I still felt optimistic that we could transform American culture into something more environmentally responsible and more perceptive in and domestic policies. Then Ronald Reagan, who I’d always regarded as a right wing kook, was elected in 1980. That was for me the destruction of all the dreams of progress I'd ever had. Mealy-mouthed centrism and economic incompetence was replaced by wacko economics, aggressively militaristic foreign policy and open pandering to racists and assorted other nuts. It’s been a long, hard climb back up to a sense of possibility.

Then along came Barack Obama. I canvassed Easton, PA from Sunday until about 3:30pm yesterday. I canvassed Sunday morning on the south side of Easton, which is apparently the roughest part of the city (it looked to me like Worcester, MA in 1968). The row houses were all on a hillside, so going door-to-door was a matter of going up a hill, knock/talk/leave literature, walk back down the hill. Slow going. The next morning, we canvassed another neighborhood nearby & hit the jackpot—a nursing home. The guy working in the office was an Obama supporter & he’d organized the entire building, arranging for a van to shuttle the residents to & from the polls. Amazing. Then I was sent to canvass Forks Township, which is a vast upper-middle class suburb. I got into an argument with 2 guys who came at me in a (verbally) belligerent way about Reverend Wright. (We were all told not to do this, but I just couldn’t behave myself.) After about an hour, I converted the most hostile of the 2 to an Obama supporter. This put me way behind schedule, so I kept at it until well after dark, which was kind of interesting—there were no street lights, so I couldn’t read the names on the sheets or the addresses of the houses without huddling under the garage lights at each house (it was pretty cold, too).

After canvassing in Forks Township all morning yesterday, I went back to our staging area (the Open Bible Church at 14th & Lehigh in Easton) to eat. As I took in the scene--zillions of people in the basement, waves of volunteers pouring in as others went out to canvass, groups of people being trained in the corners before going out--I was completely overwhelmed & started crying. I felt good going back to NY, not anticipating anything, just feeling a calm certainty. After dinner, my wife (who'd been phone calling with tons of people at BAM while I was in Easton) and I went next door to watch the returns with neighbors. I knew the second they announced the PA results that we had it & said so, but it still didn't sink in. At 11 I was back in our apartment when I heard my wife burst through the door yelling, "we did it!" I ran over to our neighbors to see & as I watched, I started crying like a baby. I've been crying on & off ever since. I’d gotten so used to being bitter, I didn’t even notice it anymore.

Thank God. Thank you. Thank everyone I worked with on the campaign. Thank you to Ken and Ron for your hospitality, witty and intelligent conversation and your commitment to the cause. Thank you Rick for your phone call yesterday—I was on a mission so I couldn’t take the time to talk at length, but it was great to hear your voice. Thank you Mark, John, Pam and Virginia for working with me up & down the streets of Easton. Thank you Eunice Artis for your hospitality in Nazareth. Thank you Tom & Jocelyn Predhome for arranging the rides. Thanks to all the Americans who pulled together and finally put an end to the madness that's been inflicted on us for so long. There are no guarantees that we'll be able to deal successfully with the enormous list of crises left to us by Bush et al, but for the first time in my life I was able to work and vote for a candidate who I genuinely want to be president, and who I am confident has the intellect, instincts and talents to lead this country out of the wilderness. I am really honored to have been able to play some small part in it. (Btw, having never been on the inside of a campaign before at any level, I found it fascinating & really exciting.) I realized afterwards that this is something I've wanted to do my whole life. It's just that we never had a candidate I ever felt I could support unambiguously & I never felt that any previous campaign was open to any other than party insiders.

We're going to face a lot of difficult challenges but I think we're in good hands. I hope Obama keeps his website open & expands it to use for governance, because it's a great tool for both mobilizing popular support and providing feedback. If he takes advantage of that, he can avoid getting stuck in the sort of Washington tunnel vision that seems to affect most if not all politicians who are in DC for any significant amount of time. In any case, he’s right that democracy is our responsibility. So I guess we’ll just have to keep at it (not that anything could stop me, in any case). After all, it’s ours.

Wow.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Context

This election’s outcome, even more than the campaign leading up to it, will be transformational on multiple levels. Here’s a story illustrating just how much, at least on one level.

Remember Michelle Obama’s story about a 10 year old girl who told her that if Barack Obama wins, “it will be historical”?

I find these stories really compelling.

Of course, there are many other reasons to vote for Obama, as noted on this blog and many others. The war in Iraq, the economy, healthcare, global warming, education, incompetence in general (remember Hurricane Katrina?), torture, the shredding of the constitution, warrantless wiretapping of Americans en masse, the abrogations of signed international treaties, contempt for the rule of law—take your pick (or add your own to the list—it’s almost endless). Dick Cheney endorsed John McCain today, thereby reminding everyone with a brain that the latter really does represent, in multiple ways, a continuation of the disasters perpetrated by the administration of the former for the past 8 years. Obama wasted no time, taking full advantage of that to remind us all, once again, what's truly at stake in this election.

For God's sakes vote—but also do phone calling, travel to a battleground state, do anything you possibly can to get Obama supporters to the polls! I’m going to PA to canvass voters from Sunday through Tuesday. I’ve been arguing for years that we who live in a safe Democratic state (NY) should go to other states to do this stuff. Now that the opportunity has arisen, I’d feel like the biggest hypocrite in the world if I didn’t act on my beliefs. For the first time in my life, we have a candidate whose campaign has been predicated on ideas I truly believe in & who has rhetorically grounded his candidacy in the principles embedded in the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution (as amended) & Lincoln’s second inaugural. If you feel the way I do about this election, ask yourself this: If I don’t do everything I can to a candidate I genuinely support into the White House, when will I ever get another such chance in my life?

Let’s make this happen! The future of our country and our planet are at stake!